Download Article (1.17 MB)
20 Downloads
Abstract
This paper presents a detailed empirical analysis of the dynamics of fiscal policy by evaluating the
impact of government expenditure and public debt on economic growth in Tanzania from 1990 to
2021, with data extracted from the World Development Indicators (WDI). The paper employed the
Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Granger causality techniques. The paper presents the
findings of a statistically insignificant unidirectional relationship between public expenditure and
economic growth. It attributes the negative coefficient of government expenditure in the long run
to the prevalence of recurrent expenditure over developmental expenditure, potentially acting as a
hindrance to economic growth in Tanzania. Furthermore, the paper suggests a statistically
significant and positive long-term relationship between public debt and Tanzania's economic
growth. A one percent increase in public debt corresponds to a 2.4 percentage point increase in
economic growth. The presence of a statistically significant Error-Correction Term suggests the
correction of past deviations from long-run equilibrium, with 75% correction in the current period.
These findings align with the Keynesian Theory, but they contradict the Adolph Wagner's
hypothesis. The Johansen's co-integration test results support the existence of a long-run
relationship between GDP and the public debt, and government expenditure. The paper therefore
emphasizes efficient debt management and channeling borrowed funds into productive sectors in
order to promote real economic growth and create opportunities, including employment. The
paper also advocates for a correlation between increased borrowing and a rise in development
expenditures, urging policymakers to align economic policies with macroeconomic objectives.
These include promoting productive investments, employment opportunities, and sustainable
economic growth. The strategic allocation of public debts to long-term projects in crucial sectors
is seen as a meaningful contribution to stable economic growth, demanding effective management
of public expenditures to ensure economic stability. Additional measures are proposed to control
and maintain inflation levels, as well as strengthen the local currency through increased exports
and domestic production.
Keywords
Economic growth
Tanzania
Government Expenditure
Public Debt
VECM model
Citation
Kiangi, R. (2026), "Evaluating the Dynamics of Fiscal Policy: Government Expenditure, Public Debt, and Economic Growth in Tanzania (1990-2021)", The African Journal of Finance and Management, Volume 16 Issue 1 , 0856-6372.
Contacts
P.O Box 3918, 5 Shaaban Robert Street
11101 Dar es salaam
+255 22 2112931-4
Fax : +255 22 2112935
rector@ifm.ac.tz
Related Links
© 2026 The Institute of Finance Management. All rights reserved.