Merchandise exports are an important macroeconomic variable that determines the economic growth in Tanzania. International trade is among the economic activities that influence economic growth. The present paper analyzes the trend and forecasts merchandise exports using time series data from 1963 to 2022 in Tanzania. Trend analysis and Box-Jenkins using ARIMA (1,1,1) models were used to determine the trend and forecasting for merchandise exports, respectively. Augment Dicker Fuller (ADF) test, and correlogram were used to measure the unit root. Again, Q-statistic was utilized to determine if the residuals are white noise. Empirical results show that merchandise export trends are improving over time, and forecast results reveal an increase in the future for Tanzania. Forecasting was done after all the conditions were met, that is, residuals are white noise and the ARIMA process covariance was stationary, all AR roots lie inside the unit circle and the ARMA process is invertible, and all MA roots lie inside the unit circle. Based on the trend and forecasting results, the government has to pay attention to the macroeconomic policies and maintain economic stability to prevent the trend and merchandise exports from declining in the future. The main focus should be given to the international trade policy and monetary policy as the main economic drivers that influence the trade activities within and outside the country. Export incentives should not be ignored because exchange rate stability is among the essential variables that determine international trade.